The Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Does the outcome of the Super Bowl really have any bearing on the stock market? Should investors consider adjusting their portfolios based on the winning team? As we gear up for Super Bowl LIX (or Super Bowl 59, for those who skipped Latin in high school), let’s dive into this intriguing question.

A Brief History of the Super Bowl

The first Super Bowl took place in January 1967, featuring the Green Bay Packers – already dominant in the NFL – against the AFL champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers emerged victorious.

The Super Bowl was created as a championship game between the winners of the NFL (founded in 1920) and the AFL (which launched in 1960). In 1970, the two leagues merged, forming the modern NFC (National Football Conference) and AFC (American Football Conference). To balance the conferences, the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns (now the Baltimore Ravens), and Baltimore Colts (now based in Indianapolis) transitioned to the AFC.

Super Bowl Wins by Conference

In the 58 Super Bowls played so far, the NFC and AFC are tied with 29 victories each. Historically, former NFL teams (now in the NFC) have won 39 times, while original AFL teams (now in the AFC) have won 19 times.

Some of the most successful franchises include:

• 6 wins: Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots
• 5 wins: San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys
• 4 wins: Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Kansas City Chiefs

All of these teams, except for the Patriots and Chiefs, originated in the NFL.

The Super Bowl & the Stock Market

An odd pattern known as the Super Bowl Indicator suggests that the stock market tends to perform differently depending on which conference wins. Historically, the market has risen in years when an NFC team or a former NFL team (like the Steelers, Colts, or Ravens) won, while it has declined more often when an AFC team won.

But does this pattern hold up today?

Not exactly.

Consider recent years:

• 2023 & 2024: The Kansas City Chiefs won back-to-back titles, yet the stock market climbed.
• 2022: The Los Angeles Rams (NFC) won, but the DJIA fell over 8%.
• 2021: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) won, and the DJIA rose over 18%.
• 2020: The Kansas City Chiefs (AFC) won, yet the DJIA gained over 7%.
• 2019: The New England Patriots (AFC) won, and the DJIA surged over 25%.

Clearly, the Super Bowl Indicator has been unreliable lately. Over the past 15 years, it has been correct less than 40% of the time – about the same odds as flipping a coin.

Origins of the Super Bowl Indicator

This theory was introduced in 1978 by New York Times sportswriter Leonard Koppett. He observed that in 10 of the first 11 Super Bowls, the game’s outcome seemed to predict the stock market’s direction for the year.

His data suggested:

• If an old AFL team won, the market declined.
• If an old NFL team won, the market rose.

Surprisingly, this pattern continued over time. Out of 58 Super Bowls, the DJIA followed the Indicator’s prediction 42 times (72% accuracy). Using the S&P 500 – a broader market measure – the accuracy drops to 60%.

How Do Specific Teams Affect the Market?

Looking at individual franchises, some teams have an even stronger connection to the market’s performance:

• Pittsburgh Steelers (6 wins): The DJIA rose every time.
• San Francisco 49ers (5 wins): The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
• Dallas Cowboys (5 wins): The DJIA rose in 4 out of 5 years.
• Green Bay Packers (4 wins): The DJIA rose after each victory.
• New York Giants (4 wins): The DJIA rose in 3 out of 4 years.
• Washington (3 wins): The DJIA rose after each win.

For AFC teams, the trend isn’t as favorable – except for the Kansas City Chiefs:

• New England Patriots (6 wins): The DJIA fell in 3 out of 6 years.
• Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders (3 wins): The DJIA fell every time.
• Miami Dolphins (2 wins, including a perfect season): The DJIA still fell.
• Kansas City Chiefs (4 wins): The DJIA rose every time.

A Logical Explanation?

The simplest explanation is that the market tends to rise regardless – 42 of the past 58 years have seen gains. Meanwhile, NFC/AFC teams have won equally and the two trends coincided 30 times, giving the illusion of a predictive pattern.

So, with the Chiefs entering Super Bowl LIX as a slight 1.5-point favorite over the Eagles, does that mean another stock market rally is on the way?

And let’s be honest – given that the market has risen every time the Chiefs won, are you secretly hoping for a Kansas City three-peat?

The Bottom Line

While the Super Bowl Indicator is fun to analyze, there’s no actual causation between football victories and market movements.

The Chiefs, Eagles, Steelers, Cowboys, 49ers, and Patriots have no real influence on the DJIA (obvious, right?). So, don’t blame the Patriots’ passing game or credit the Steelers’ defense for the stock market’s direction – unless you’re just having fun with the idea.

At the end of the day, successful investing isn’t about Super Bowl outcomes. But for those who love spotting patterns in random data, this quirky correlation remains an amusing footnote in financial folklore.

So, who are you rooting for?

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